MFSTEP S.E. Levantine Shelf Forecasting
WP8-9-10 Meeting Presentations
Gulf of Lion
Malta Shelf Forecasting
The purpose of WP9 is to evaluate and demonstrate the feasibility of near real time 5 days forecasts at regional/shelf scale in the Mediterranean Sea. Setting up a near real time forecast system for the Mediterranean region requires:
1) modeling techniques to treat the open boundary conditions problem (nested numerical models), 2) initialization procedures in order to downscale model solutions in a dynamical consistent way 3) asynchronous air-sea coupling methods in order to provide realistic surface boundary conditions for the hydrodynamics.
In addition, all regional and shelf models previously existing within MFSPP will approximately double their spatial resolution in order to arrive at a grid mesh of ~3.5 Km at the regional scale and ~1.5 Km at the shelf scale. This new model configuration is expected to greatly improve forecast skill especially at the shelf scale.
WP9 will also address:
i) the effects of downscaled atmospheric forcing (very high resolution winds) in improving the models forecast skill. ii) the improvement of sea level prediction in particular Mediterranean regions by including atmospheric pressure and tidal forcing.
General description of deliverables
1) Implementation of four regional and ten shelf hydrodynamic models nested within the MFSTEP basin scale ocean model (MFSTEP OGCM)
2) Implement Variational Initialization techniques in preparation to regional/shelf scale forecasting
3) Carry out weekly 5 days forecasts in NRT at regional scale
4) Assess predictability skills in regional and shelf areas
5) Improve regional/shelf models wherever necessary